Fourth Generation Warfare?

Hezbollah martyrs, courtesy Wikipedia Commons

by blogSpotter
Syndicated columnist Georgie Anne Geyer had a good editorial, "Outsourced Violence" in last week's Dallas Morning News. In it, she describes the current devolution of nation-states into tribes of people who act in rabid self-interest. She describes a concept called "Fourth Generation War" (military term for insurgent warfare) where primitive, narrow interest groups are now able to acquire sophisticated weapons. A result of this is new guerilla warfare that resembles full-blown wars of previous decades; we have long range missiles being launched across national boundaries by Hezbollah as one example.

Geyer goes on to say that nation states such as the United States react both clumsily and ineffectively, because we aren't grasping the problem. Israel has recently bombed Lebanon's army headquarters -- attacking the very people that are needed to rein in Hezbollah. America's actions in Iraq are equally inept -- we create more anger and insurgency by what we do.

I would concur with part of what Geyer says about tribalism, although I wouldn't be as dire about it. The tribalism she describes is mostly confined to third world countries that have never been beacons of democracy, secularism or reasoned thinking. At best, there have been briefly pacific periods where a particular Shah or Dictator presided over a non-militarized populace. It is true that more powerful weapons can now land in the hands of a few crazies. Her observation that nation states have reacted clumsily is also accurate. The US and Israel now need finesse much more than prowess. If you look at recent democracy experiments in the Middle East, you have:

• Palestine electing Hamas
• Lebanon electing Hezbollah (to 12% of their assembly)
• Iraq electing a prime minister who calls us 'butchers' and tells us to leave

Jefferson must be rolling in his grave, but at least the Middle East is not his legacy. A dose of healthy cynicism would be beneficial at this point (a la George Will). Democracy is like driving a car -- you need to have maturity, judgment, height, willingness and readiness. The Middle East may be ready for Drivers Ed or a Learner's Permit. In the meantime, beneficent dictators are about the best they will accomplish. The intellectuals of the French Revolution were horrified to discover that peasants wanted to reinstate a King. And France did end up with an Emperor (Napoleon). What the US could probably do is take logical steps to curb the violence. This isn't a French Revolution -- there will be no Ayatollahs deposed -- by us at any rate. Fundamentalist religion, tribalism and lack of education will confound this part of the world for years to come. Until they can understand that tolerance and multiculturalism are aspects of a healthy democracy, nations of the Middle East will roil in a violent misfortune of their own making.

© 2006 blogSpotter.