Left to Their Own Devices

How will it end? -- Picture courtesy Wikipedia

by blogSpotter
This dead horse has been pummeled already, but due to recent news headlines I feel it requires another pummeling. Today, Senators Warner and Levin will probably pass a non-binding resolution stating the Senate's opposition to Bush's "surge" plan. I don't have a problem with that resolution, other than its tepid wording. There should be some censure against a President who has basically taken leave of his senses. Overall though, there needs to be a bottom-line assessment, a cut-to-the-chase on this matter.

When we invaded Iraq in 2003, Colin Powell recommended occupation with overwhelming force. It's a tried-and-true approach for bringing order and security to a country torn by chaos, civil strife and sectarian violence. Donald Rumsfeld didn't want to occupy. In fact, according to Bob Woodward's "State of Denial", Rumsfeld didn't want Iraqis to think they were occupied; he didn't even want American troops to use the word "occupation". Apparently, Rumsfeld thought we were going to tiptoe thru the tulips in our redirection of Iraq. He bought the Chalibi line that Iraqis would welcome Americans with open arms. The only group that welcomed us that way in any measure was the fundamentalist Shia majority, kept down by Saddam Hussein in previous years.

Colin Powell is a wise man. To get Iraq under control right now, it would take a surge much larger than 21,500 troops. We would need to double our troop presence to say 280,000 and post a soldier on every street corner of every major city. Martial law and curfews would need to be in effect and a military stringency would have to dictate the daily activities of Iraqis who are otherwise disposed to blowing each other up. Will we ever send 280,000 troops to Iraq? It would open up another can of worms -- selective service and the draft. We probably couldn't get the needed troop strength without involuntary conscription in our own country. Bush's request for 21,500 troops has met with considerable opposition -- 280K is pretty well out of the question right now.

Candidates Christopher Dodd and John Edwards have called for immediate withdrawal of some or all of our troops. They've been lambasted with a picture of dire consequences -- what would happen if Iraqis were left to their own devices. Basically, the American war hawks believe that Al Quaeda would take over the show. The major fallacy here is to assume that all Sunni Muslims are supporters of Al Quaeda. Al Quaeda is an extremist fringe group, even over there. To say that all Sunnis are Al Quaeda would be like saying all American Protestants are Ku Klux Klan. It simply isn't the case. If we completely withdrew, Iraq would probably fragment along its current fault lines; the Shias would draw some support from Iran and the Sunnis would draw some support from Saudi Arabia. This fracturing is probably inevitable -- Iraq itself was cobbled together by the British in the 1920's; the British had no better understanding of Muslim ethic divisions than Americans do now.

A third possibility looms as the greatest short term likelihood and is totally unsatisfactory. We will keep enough soldiers involved to prop up a weak, ineffectual government that leans heavily toward the Shiites. American soldiers will be human sacrifices at the altar of Flawed Foreign Policy. They will continue to drive over roadside bombs and have their Blackhawk helicopters shot out of the sky. Human sacrifice is bad enough, but pointless death should never be tolerated.

Dodd and Edwards are right. We should begin a drawdown with the realization that we can't fight everyone's fight -- we are neither Shia nor Sunni in this case. We should brace for possible side effects, such as involvement by neighboring countries. Iraq held an election and they voted in an Islamic Shiite theocracy – America should have seen it coming. When Iraqis are finally left to their own devices, it will be interesting to see if this corrupt theocracy is appropriately sidelined. It may only rule over a few square miles when all is said and done. Then again, it may not rule at all.

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