Psychic Readings for 2016

Hillary in a confirmation hearing - Pic courtesy of Wikipedia

by Trebor Snillor
Today I’m at home on a Saturday night – surprise! We’ve had unexpected thunderstorms and power outages today. Probably a good idea to keep indoors and avoid the rain drops.

ELECTION 2016
I’ve been writing this blog since 2005, and have been famously inaccurate about predicting who will win or even run in a next presidential race. That does not stop me from pontificating at all. A broken clock is right twice a day, and maybe it’s my time to be right. 

RICK PERRY
Governor Perry was just indicted for coercion of a public servant. The federal indictment will surely cause him image problems but some legal experts including democrat David Axelrod think it’s a weak case. I figure that Perry was a long shot due to his poor 2012 showing and general lack of pizzazz. The legal issues won’t help, but it was a “hail Mary” effort anyhow.

RAND PAUL
Rand Paul is energizing, youthful, interesting and sometimes he even makes sense to this centrist democrat (me, the author). He actually sided with Obama on a couple of recent foreign policy issues and seems to be reasonable until … he whips out his Libertarian philosophy. He believes in a flat tax and thinks federal spending should be drastically curtailed. He would have trouble gaining momentum with the Old GOP Guard who value their pork barrel politics. Libertarianism is a hard sell, even when it disguises itself as “constitutional conservatism”.

TED CRUZ
This senator from Texas actually scares and concerns me a bit. He’s good-looking and charismatic. He has what Bush #1 called “the big mo” (momentum). He’s a bombastic, overconfident Tea Party bloviator with apt phrases and good camera presence. Americans frequently go for the guy with a twinkle in his eye (never mind anything at all about the candidate’s worthiness for the office). Cruz was the wrecking ball who nearly shut down the government last year but Americans also have a short memory. Watch out for Cruz.

JOE BIDEN
Biden has recently suggested he might run in 2016, though Queen Hillary has very nearly been anointed for that role by the party elders and the press. Biden is a good, fun, jovial man. He’s stepped in a few controversies and misspoken a couple of times but he’s an intelligent man with his heart in the right place. I like him a lot, personally, but think that the Hillary juggernaut will leave him in the dust.

HILLARY CLINTON
I have Republican friends who almost assume Hillary will be the next president. Women and feminists everywhere are baying at the moon for President Hillary. I hate to burst their bubble, but I think Hillary has a good chance of losing for 2 or 3 reasons:
1) The Adlai Effect – She’s already run and lost. Prior losers are less-loved.
2) Hillary will be old - She would be 69 at inauguration. Old ladies are less-loved.
3) Beer Buddy question – This is the most important fact. Hillary comes across as a stiff, academic policy wonk – an overly serious nerd who did her homework last week.

Americans famously dislike intellectual eggheads. People who are rich, highly educated or use big words lose American voters really fast. John Kerry came across as a limousine liberal snob and George McGovern came across as a stuffy professor. Americans want a guy who can crack wise on a talk show or play the saxophone. Who would you rather have a beer with? Probably not Mrs. Clinton.

TWO DISAFFECTED VOTER GROUPS
I wrote previously (“Will the Voter Get His Groove Back”) – about 2 disaffected groups. Evangelical Christians sit on their hands if they don’t love the GOP candidate’s flavor of conservatism. They didn’t like McCain in 2008 and they distrusted Romney in 2012. African Americans also sit on their hands if the Democratic candidate isn’t a stylin’ smilin’ hipster (like Bill Clinton or Obama). They were coldly indifferent to Al Gore and John Kerry. Let me get on my soapbox… ATTENTION DISAFFECTED VOTERS – you will never, ever have a candidate who precisely reflects your opinions. It will almost always be a lesser of evils situation. You still have a dog in the fight. Evangelicals helped Obamacare get passed and African Americans helped start two unnecessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It matters that you vote and who you vote for. Petulance and pettiness only help the other guy get what he wants. Keep that in mind when you hate your party’s next nominee.

Have I nailed any predictions here? Absolutely not. 2016 is like a greased pig and it could go in several different directions. Everyone needs to be on his or her toes. Message to Hillary – smile more and laugh it up. Your biggest hurdle is not your resume but rather your repartee.

© 2014 Snillor Productions