FutureVision

1939 World's Fair - Picture courtesy of Wikipedia

by blogSpotter
As a fifty-something baby boomer, I probably have had lofty expectations for what the future will bring -- expectations that need to be dialed back. When I was a child, every year brought astonishing changes; some were monumental like the moon landing or heart transplants. Still others were culturally explosive if not life-extending – color TV, stereophonic sound, heavy metal rock music and the sex revolution. It seemed each day was another blockbuster change. I was pretty sure in 1970 that 2010 would see us in Jetson-style space vehicles, traveling to lunar colonies. Cancer would be a thing of the past and all humankind would join hands in a circle of political harmony.

I was dramatically mistaken about the future, and I wonder why the world took such a detour. Let me skip across the last 4 decades to assess what has actually gotten better. We'll divide these up by category:

CONVENIENCE: Handheld calculators, microwave ovens, vcr’s, dvr’s, personal computers, walkmans, CD’s, DVD’s, cell phones, digital answering machines, satellite cable/radio, iPods/iPads/iPhones, the Internet

AUTO/SAFETY: air bags on cars, 5 mph bumpers, catalytic converters, lead free gasoline

ENVIRONMENT: solar energy, wind power, enviro-safe packaging, ozone-friendly AC, recycling

HEALTH: pacemakers, HIV protease “cocktail” drugs, SSRI antidepressants, Viagra

SOCIETY: Viet Nam war ended, marriage equality in 7 states, prescription drug Medicare coverage, woman’s right to choose, detente, fall of Berlin Wall, end of DADT in military

SPACE: Viking lander on Mars, Space Shuttle, Space Station

If you look at the preceding list of advancements, none of them are really Earth-shaking. In 1969, I could really make do with TV, movies and radio. Lack of 1000+ channels didn’t harm me. I can appreciate car safety from an objective standpoint and yet those advancements don’t excite me in any way. Same deal with the environment. Those advances will help us collectively and in the long run but will not particularly turn anything on its head right away. Some people might even complain that it’s gone too far and creates a stifling atmosphere for invention or experimentation.

What we have to add is that several things certainly got worse over 40 years. We had at least 3 more wars, plus the AIDS epidemic. The NASA program has been dismantled and the Post Office is falling apart. The 2008 financial meltdown made us keenly aware that New Deal safeguards don’t necessarily protect us from Wall Street wolves if the laws aren’t enforced. Culture Wars flared up during the Reagan years and the GOP was carried far to the right by evangelicals. Islamic fanatics attacked our financial district in 2001, exposing much vulnerability with regard to transportation security, visa enforcement, and Middle East diplomacy. Cancer and heart disease have barely been slowed – biotechnology is a big disappointment as is space exploration. The Space Shuttle is discontinued and the Space Station was largely financed and engineered by the Russians. Russia reverted to a market economy but replaced the politburo with oligarchs and the Russian mafia.

To do great things as a nation, we’ll need massive tax funding or private consortium funding. Capitalism isn’t a patient midwife – it wants instant gains. Can a purely capitalistic nation which is inherently short-range in its thinking compete with the “market socialism” of China? How big can our ideas ever be if they’re constrained by concerns centering on near term profit margins and share holder value? I may have only 20 years left in my lifespan… What great things can I expect by the day I breathe my last? Based on what I’ve just sorted through – not much. By 2032 we will have 20 more iterations of iPad, Windows and Mac OS. We’ll have toys and gadgets out the wazoo (don’t we already?). We’ll have mind-blowing virtual reality for entertainment purposes.

But on the biggest issues I don’t see the needle moving. The Middle East has been a tinderbox for 1000 years, what’s another 20? The economics of material glut pretty well indicates that Americans will continue to satisfy appetites for luxury to the exclusion of space or biotechnology. Culture Wars will continue to play out and I don’t see that reaching a pleasant resolution anytime soon. Am I the ultimate, nattering pessimist? Actually, I’m not. I have major optimism under my negative pessimism.

But we’re not looking at 20 years… we’re looking at 200, maybe 2000 years. My few remaining years might see some personal, mundane pleasantness -- new cars, a couple of vacations, graduations. I'm not betting on any New Enlightenment for the world at large... Let’s allow 2000 years for men to be reasonable and enlightened… Give it 2000 years for human kind to turn it all around. The world will improve at its own glacial pace -- and our future vision will have to be tempered with that reality.

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